San Jose Sharks Spotlight: Tomas Hertl

The San Jose Sharks Development Spotlight is a regular feature that takes a close look at a Sharks player’s development progress at this point in their career.  This week we watch Tomas Hertl’s career unfold through analysis of his shot selection.

In sports there are many moments that sound great in the recap and are enjoyable in the highlights, but if you were watching that game in real time, well…that moment was 100% transcendent. I’m not talking about just the “I can’t believe what I just saw”. I’m talking about the ugly-crying, head-to-toe chills, life-improvement moments-of-bliss that can only really occur when the team you love and a player you appreciate enjoy one nearly supernatural storybook occurrence.

Most hockey fans get this when their team wins the Stanley Cup, which I’m sure is great, but in San Jose Sharks fandom, we aren’t convinced that the whole idea isn’t made up. But hey, maybe one year we won’t eat that extra-large regret-lovers pizza slathered in sadness and piled with disappointment topping.

For Sharks fans, one of the more transcendental moments in Sharks history came on October 8, 2013, the third game of that season: Tomas Hertl’s 4 goal game against the New York Rangers.

Not only did we watch a young man realize his dreams of starring in the NHL right before us, but we watched a San Jose Sharks prospect look like a young Jaromir Jagr and nearly made us forget about all the William Wrenns, the Nick Petreckis, and the Ty Wisharts.

For that moment we had a young future Hall-of-Famer. A guy who could score 4 goals in 11 minutes of ice-time and would obviously score 200 goals a season and break Gretzky’s all-time mark by the time he was 25. It was glorious.

he’d obviously score 200 goals a season and break Gretzky’s all-time mark by age 25.

32 games later, Hertl had cooled off of his 316 goal-per-season pace (go figure) but still had a respectable 25 points (15 G, 10 A) in 37 games. To that point he’d showed average speed but good acceleration. He’d proven to be strong on the stick and showed a willingness to attack the goal with both brawn and creativity.

All that is clear when you look at Hertl’s shot chart for the year (thanks to @ChartingHockey). You see a young man attacking the goal, letting shots go right on top of the D and the keeper, not from the dots. At that point, Hertl had the strength and confidence to drive it in deep. Lots of action, mixing it up, all around the net.

And then came Dustin freaking Brown. I don’t know the man, but he seems like the kind of guy that would crosscheck a puppy into an orphan at a public skate session for the Make-a-Wish Foundation. Yes, that Dustin Brown. And he might as well have crosschecked San Jose Sharks fans’ puppy when Brown left his leg out to go battering-ram on Hertl’s right knee. Brown got kicked out of the game. Hertl lost a healthy knee and essentially the rest of the regular season.

After rehab from surgery that year, Hertl returned reasonably effectively in the playoffs (5 PTS in 7 GP) but he was clearly not skating at 100% strength or confidence.

We all crossed our fingers and hoped the offseason work and rest would cure all. However, 2014-15 proved to be a major step backward. While it was good news that he played a full 82 games, Hertl’s PPG fell from 0.68 to 0.38, producing 31 points total (13G, 18A). The reduction in goal scoring seemed a foregone conclusion watching Hertl on the ice that season.

Tomas didn’t look like a youngster just struggling to adapt in his sophomore season, he looked broken. He lacked the acceleration that had previously maximized his otherwise average speed and his hands lacked certainty. Worse than that, he didn’t skate with the same bullishness into defenders and in high traffic areas. His shot chart from 2014 backs it up (thanks again @ChartingHockey).

It might seem subtle, but Hertl was generally releasing shots a few feet sooner. It’s possible the D was stepping up on him more, but empirically, it was confidence. I don’t care how tough you are, if you are 20 years old and had your career threatened by one hit that you couldn’t have avoided, you’d skate into traffic more gingerly. And let’s face it, his knee likely didn’t feel strong enough to withstand punishment either.

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After a lengthy, playoff-less offseason, the San Jose Sharks’ 2015-16 campaign seemed like a make-or-break year for the young Czech and it sure didn’t start well for him. With 4 goals in the first 38 games, it appeared the Tomas Hertl from 2013 might never return. After a widely reported new commitment to his health (and another year removed from the injury), Hertl looked stronger and more sure, thanks in part to the vote of confidence from DeBoer in giving him his line as center.

Still, despite strong possession numbers, Hertl couldn’t put it all together. So at the midpoint of the season, as a reward for effort if not for output, DeBoer moved Hertl onto the top line with the Joes to see if it could help push the youngster’s game over the top. Boy, did it ever.

The rest of the 2015-16 regular season and lengthy Cup run was the most successful in San Jose Sharks history, and Hertl became a primary reason. He had returned to a brash young hockey player brimming with confidence. He had 17 goals in the final 43 games of the season and 6 more in 20 playoff games. His reinvigorated play made the Sharks top line an enviable force.

Much is made in hockey about self-assurance as a driving factor for success, and you could see it building for Hertl throughout the season and playoffs. He took lots of shots from all over the zone, two signs of confidence, and took 164 of his 335 shots down low (below and inside the dots) showing a renewed drive to carry it in strong into traffic.

that’s when the most San Jose Sharksiest thing happened. Hertl tweaked his right knee again.

At the apex of hockey bliss, just when that glimmer of hope coalesced that Sharks fans were watching the return of their prodigal who was helping them march towards a Cup in San Jose… well…that’s when the most San Jose Sharksiest thing happened. Hertl, on a perfectly clean, relatively nondescript hit from Patrick Hornqvist, tweaked his right knee again. It is quite amazing how much hatred this immediately stirred up for Dustin Freaking Brown. Hornqvist was just doing Hornqvist things, but Dustin Brown. This was his fault. And in one event, the San Jose Sharks’ Cup dreams, and all Hertl’s progress, seemed to go right out the window.

The following 2016-17 season felt like a rerun. Hertl missed significant time because of the knee and when he came back he wasn’t the same. His shot chart once again showed him back to releasing the puck early and his quick shots upon zone entry seemed tentative, not aggressive.

To make matters worse, he ended his 10 goal, 49 game season with a broken foot. This was not Dustin Brown’s fault, but we all blamed him anyway because he really is just the worst.

I see lots of shots right down Main Street, most in close (162 shots down low of 310 shots throughout the season and playoffs). Once again, confidence and aggressiveness paid off. Tomas had 46 points (22 goals) in 79 regular season games and put together another impressive playoffs with 9 points (6 goals) in 10 games. He dominated games using his big body in puck possession and showed incredible poise and patience which come only with a confident hockey player.

If last season was another “make-or-break” year for the young forward, the results should leave San Jose fans with a good amount of hope, or at least as much hope as Sharks fans are allowed to have by the hockey gods. San Jose Sharks GM Doug Wilson rewarded Hertl with a 4-year, $5.625M per year contract that looks to keep Hertl in teal through his prime. If he gets consecutive years to grow without injury, that 2013 confidence is within reach.

He’s playing smarter, more poised, and with the knowledge that his body can bounce back. If he can stay healthy (not a small “if”), with some career momentum, it isn’t out of the realm of reason that he could get to a 30/30 season. He has the scorers touch and the puck possession to push that to 40/40, but he’s got to keep that confidence high and he’s got to keep driving that net with aplomb. He also has to have some darn luck. The guy is due a few breaks about now, isn’t he?

For once, 2018 is not a “make-or-break” year for Tomas Hertl, but it could be the year that Hertl shows us what he really is capable of. And don’t worry. The fact that we had to wait this long for it will just make all us San Jose Sharks fans dislike Dustin Brown that much more.