Could the Sharks look to trade up for the number 1 overall pick? According to David Pagnotta of the 4th Period, he expects the Sharks to explore this possibility. This is not too surprising, as defenseman Matthew Schaefer is expected to be the first player taken on June 27th. The Sharks would love to get Schaefer, as he would be the ideal fit with what they already have in their pool, but they likely won't be able to get him at 2. So it makes perfect sense for the Sharks to want the first pick, but does it make sense for the Islanders?
It becomes more tricky from an Islander's perspective. New GM Mathieu Darche does not expect to trade the first overall pick but is willing to listen to offers. Now, this only means so much, as this time of year, teams aren’t going to lay their whole hand on the table. However, from a roster perspective, the Islanders lack promising defensive prospects, so adding a blue-chip prospect on the back end makes a ton of sense. Even if the Islanders want the local star in James Hagens, if they view Schaefer as a better prospect, I don’t think they will be incentivized to take Hagens just because of his connection. So, what offer could the Sharks realistically make to get the Islanders to move off Schaefer?
Looking at the Draft pick value calculator, for the Sharks to equal the value of the first overall pick, they would need to add the Dallas and the 2026 Oilers first to 2nd overall. This isn’t a video game, so meeting the value doesn’t guarantee the Islanders bite on the package. The Sharks would likely need to add further to this package, adding one of their better prospects in the Dickinson, Musty, Chernyshov tier. Since the Sharks are making this trade to address their lack of impact defenders, let's assume Sam Dickinson is untouchable; for the sake of this exercise, I'm going to include Cheryshov in the package, as he would probably be the player that hurts the most to lose between him and Musty.
So we have Cheryshov, 2nd overall, 30th overall, and the Edmonton first in 2026 for 1st overall. This would be hard for the Sharks to stomach despite the number of assets they have stockpiled over the years. While you get Schaefer, you lose three premium assets in addition to the 2nd overall pick. That is a lot of capital for one player, and it would probably be cheaper to trade for an already-established defenseman from an asset perspective. And I’m not even sure if the Islanders go for this package.
The Sharks need to be patient. While it would be nice to grab Schaefer, he is not the single piece that will put them over the top. Grier has done an excellent job at staying patient and pulling the trigger to get value when he can. If the Islanders would prefer one of the top centers, Grier could strike for a lower rate to secure the player he wants. But I don't expect the Sharks to make a crazy offer to get Schaefer. Nonetheless, it makes this draft incredibly interesting compared to the last couple of years, when the first pick was decided at the lottery.