It can’t just be the Macklin Celebrini show.
Well, it can. But it won’t win San Jose a Cup. It’s obviously too early to be using that word, but it’s not too early to be thinking about it. The Sharks have become the envy of the league when it comes to depth in their prospect pool. But General Manager, Mike Grier, has entered arguably the toughest phase of this team’s rebuild: the part where you develop expectations. Now the expectation is for San Jose to upset the established order. Today’s argument is that no player is more critical to achieving that than Michael Misa.
Some of this goes without saying. Misa’s pedigree is in some very special territory. His OHL scoring record is right alongside a cohort that includes Patrick Kane, John Tavares, and Jason Spezza. The way he generates offense is unique in its own right. Not merely a player who has enough speed to shorten the neutral zone, Misa’s a pivot that can play through contact along the wall, and in the corners, but being patient when he has to be fast gives him one of the most intriguing profiles of any Sharks forward not named Celebrini.
But let’s consider some data. Four years ago, Jonathan Willis developed an easy formula for what production looks like for number one forwards, first-line forwards, top six, and bottom six players by looking at five-on-five points per hour, in order to (in his words), “filter out opportunity factors like ice time and power play usage.” Michael Misa scored 21 points in 45 games last season. Those are solid numbers for a teenager. But they don’t scream ‘superstar.’ Or do they?
Willis’ research revealed that a true top line forward will produce, on average, 2.5 points per 60. A top-three forward will deliver between 2 and 2.5 points per 60. Top six? Between 1.5 and two. Bottom six? Between one and 1.5. Recall that Misa was 12th in ice time at even-strength, and 11th in power play minutes. So I wanted to answer some questions: what is Misa’s true production when we adjust for opportunity factors? And what was his true production compared to other 18-year olds in his cohort? Below are Misa’s numbers along with other names with comparable production.
Right away we get some revealing information. Misa’s true production was right in line with a top six forward. His true production was also comparable to some very big names in their first year despite the low totals. But I left out a fun fact: the above names are the ten players below the top 10…since 2007. Not only does Misa make the top 20 for an 18-year old’s forward production, adjusted for opportunity factors like ice time and power play usage, but he’s above some big names you don’t see on this list; names like Matt Duchene, Gabriel Landeskog, Steven Stamkos, Leo Carlsson, and John Tavares. Does that mean he’ll end up having a better career? Of course not. But what it demonstrates is that Misa proved he's good enough for more icetime and a bigger role.
Of course, none of this answers the bigger question: will those opportunity factors change? Head Coach, Ryan Warsofsky, chose the combination of Misa with Collin Graf and Tyler Toffoli at the end of the season. They were 63 percent in expected goal share, dominating shot quality for San Jose when they were on the ice. However, will that be the line that transforms Misa into the second-line center he can be? Would Warsofsky consider trying Will Smith next to Misa? What about Mason Marchment in place of Toffoli next to Graf? Ivar Stenberg seems like an obvious candidate, but with Celebrini being the ‘veteran’ between the two, that might be a better experiment.
You’d be hard pressed to think of any recent Stanley Cup winner or contender who didn’t have elite center depth. Sure, Carolina and Vegas might look like exceptions at first glance, but that’s only if you weren’t paying attention to the borderline Conn Smythe performance the Hurricanes got from Logan Stankoven, or the Selke-level play the Knights could always count on from William Karlsson. Can Misa develop into any of these players? Will Warsofsky identity that and add more responsibility to Misa’s plate?
As fun as the Sharks are, the time for fun is over (for them, not us of course). These are no longer amusing little experiments in roster building; projecting who goes where and with who. On the contrary, the data suggests that Misa has already arrived. It doesn’t guarantee he’ll get there. But it does imply he can. If that’s true, then any discussion about San Jose being playoff-bound is not so crazy after all. But that depends on Misa and the opportunity factors that come with him.
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