The San Jose Sharks will once again be mandatory viewing by fans and non-fans alike. Their new captain, Macklin Celebrini, is hockey’s best young player and on the cusp of de-throning Connor McDavid as the league’s actual best. Their prospect pool is the envy of the league, and even though there are serious questions about their blueline, goaltending, and the legitimacy of a playoff push, the vibes are immaculate.
However, today is not about the grand narratives of the Sharks and where they are in the pecking order. Today is about which Shark will give you the most bang for your buck in your fantasy draft league. Below I’ll be using a cheat sheet. In this case, all the following point projections come courtesy of Louis Boulet (whose model has the most predictive power among publicly available sites).
Macklin Celebrini
Projection: 51 goals, 84 assists, 135 points
If you’re picking in the top three, this one is a no-brainer. Celebrini has already cracked 100 points. However, Boulet’s model has him in McDavid range. For perspective, 135 points would be the fifth-highest point total of the modern era (2007). Only McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon, and Nikita Kucherov have scored more. It would also be top 40 all-time, above greats like Phil Esposito and Teemu Selanne, and below other greats like Bobby Orr and Paul Coffey.
Figuring out the over/under is tough. One the one hand, Celebrini obviously has the talent. However, his linemates are still a minor question mark. How much does Ryan Warsofsky want to experiment with Mason Marchment on Celebrini’s wing instead of Collin Graf or Igor Chernyshov? Is there a different combination altogether to be made? What about Celebrini’s captaincy? Does the role change the offense-defense dynamic to his game? He seems like exactly the kind of guy willing to sacrifice offense for more defense. But he’s also still just 20. It’s possible that 100 points was merely the floor when it comes to production. Oh right, I forgot I have a cheat sheet. Boulet’s model has McDavid scoring 133 points in 79 games this season. So yea. Celebrini is the pick. Regardless of where you’re drafting.
Michael Misa
Projection: 17 goals, 24 assists, 41 points
Misa is the most obvious breakout candidate for reasons everyone knows. Boulet’s model is being very conservative based on last year’s time on ice and workload. But there’s a reason to pick him (as I did) beyond being a fan. It’s not just the skillset but the surroundings. He should be able to knock one of Wennberg or Toffoli off the top unit. But more than that, San Jose now has the added depth. Maybe Will Smith becomes his future partner, or perhaps a combination of Misa with Stenberg and Chernyshov is the move? Whatever the case, you can bet on more than 41 points.
Will Smith
Smith is a sleeper pick even if you’re early in the fantasy draft pool. 68 points is a solid bet, but how many more points are we talking about if Celebrini is scoring at a 135-point pace? How many more points are we talking about if San Jose becomes a top-10 power play unit? This isn’t even factoring in Smith’s natural development. Right now, Smith is one of the best dual threats of any player his age. And he’s only getting better.
Luca Cagnoni
Projection: 5 goals, 26 assists, 31 points
If you want to accidentally look like a genius in your fantasy league, pick Cagnoni. There are still question marks surrounding where Cagnoni goes exactly. However, it’s hard to see him off the top power play unit given that no other defender is as qualified a specialist as he is at creating offense. Dmitry Orlov previously held down the spot behind John Klingberg, but Orlov’s continued decline is unlikely to earn him an upgraded seat on the man advantage. Cagnoni looked excellent in the preseason too. The biggest question mark is really not even about whether Cagnoni can excel on the power play, but whether Warsofsky can find the right mix on the top unit. Alexander Wennberg and Tyler Toffoli ate up a lot of minutes, but with Misa, Stenberg, and Chernyshov available, the Sharks should be able to boost Cagnoni’s point totals while upgrading the power play from where they ranked last season.
Igor Chernyshov
Last but hardly least. Chernyshov finished his brief 28-game stint with 2.7 points per hour in all situations. That was behind only Celebrini and above everyone else. It’s a small sample size, but there is nothing small about either Chernyshov himself or his play. On the surface, it's hard to justify drafting him in your fantasy league. Even though the team clearly thinks highly of him, they might prefer to isolate him away from the tougher competition. However, like last year, his play may leave the team without a choice. 49 points doesn’t sound like a lot, but this is a projection based on conservative icetime and a light workload. How much does that change if he’s a fixture in the top six and on the top power play unit? If Chernyshov cracks 60 points, I want you all to have totally expected it.
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